The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to exacerbate global inequalities, leaving many nations behind while a select few reap the benefits. A new United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report warns that without decisive policy intervention, the world faces “The Next Great Divergence”—a widening gap in development fueled by uneven AI adoption.
The Speed of Change: A Race Most Can’t Win
AI is not evolving over decades; it’s happening now, in months. This breakneck pace leaves many countries scrambling to build the necessary infrastructure, develop a skilled workforce, and establish effective governance systems. The core issue is capability : nations that invest in AI skills, computing power, and sound regulations will thrive, while others risk falling further behind.
The Asia-Pacific region, home to over half the world’s population and the widest disparities in life expectancy, serves as a stark example. Despite hosting over half of global AI users, only 14% of the region’s population actually utilizes AI tools, leaving 3.7 billion people excluded. A quarter of the population remains offline, with women in South Asia up to 40% less likely than men to own a smartphone, highlighting existing inequalities.
Economic Potential vs. Real-World Gaps
AI has the potential to boost regional GDP growth by around 2 percentage points and increase productivity by up to 5% in key sectors like health and finance. ASEAN economies alone could see nearly $1 trillion in additional GDP over the next decade. However, this potential is overshadowed by stark realities: 1.3 billion workers remain in informal employment, 770 million women are outside the labor force, and 200 million people live in extreme poverty.
Women and youth are the most vulnerable. Jobs held by women are nearly twice as exposed to automation as those held by men, and youth employment is declining in AI-heavy sectors. AI systems also perpetuate bias; credit models trained on urban male borrowers misclassify women entrepreneurs and rural farmers as high-risk, denying them financial opportunities.
The Digital Divide: Beyond Access
The problem isn’t just about access to technology; it’s about affordability and relevance. Over 1.6 billion people in Asia-Pacific cannot afford a healthy diet, and 27 million youth remain illiterate. Many countries rely on imported AI models that don’t reflect local languages or cultural contexts, further marginalizing communities.
Digital skill shortages are severe, with only a quarter of urban residents and fewer than one in five rural residents able to perform basic spreadsheet tasks. Meanwhile, AI-driven data breaches are expected to surge by 2027, underscoring the need for robust governance.
Global Disparities: A European Comparison
The divide extends beyond Asia-Pacific. While countries like Denmark, Germany, and Switzerland are leading in AI preparedness, Eastern European nations like Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina lag significantly behind. This underscores the uneven global distribution of resources and expertise.
“AI is racing ahead, and many countries are still at the starting line,” says Kanni Wignaraja, UN Assistant Secretary-General and UNDP’s regional director for Asia and the Pacific. “The Asia and Pacific experience highlights how quickly gaps can emerge between those shaping AI and those being shaped by it.”
The widening AI inequalities are not inevitable. But without proactive policy measures, the gap between the AI haves and have-nots will only grow, threatening to reverse decades of progress toward a more equitable world.
